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Analysis of the 2012 by Paul Conton Mystery of the disappearing A look at the 2012 voter registration figures reveals much of
interest. In general, the figures from NEC do not show the growth in voter
population that one would have assumed from even a moderate growth in
national population. The provisional (to be adjusted downwards to account for
overregistration) figures from NEC (available from
their website and from www.natinpasadvantage.com)
give total registration of 2,701,299. This is only 3% greater than the final
registration figure for the 2007 elections of 2,619,000 and much less than
the assumed growth in population over the five year period. Where did all the
voters go? This year’s registration
was biometric, with the expectation that this should weed out fraud in the
registration process. So can one conclude that a significant percentage of
2007’s registration was fraudulent or might the difference be explained by
other factors, perhaps a lack of voter interest in 2012? When one looks to earlier figures for answers the numbers become
even more surprising (source - https://africanelections.tripod.com/sl.html ). In June
1978, in the referendum for introduction of the one-party constitution,
registered voters were given as 2,235,400. In this election the number of
votes recorded in the North On a more serious note, comparing 2007 with 2012, one sees a large absolute drop in numbers in the East (from 635,270 in 2007 to 560,103 in 2012, which lends weight to the claim that there was fraud there in 2007), more or less the same numbers in the South (532,315 in 2007 to 537,745 in 2012 ) and sizable absolute increases in the North (from 845,740 in 2007 to 928,943 in 2012) and West (from 605,009 in 2007 to 674,508 in 2012). This should favour the APC, very much so if the reduced numbers in the South and East reflect the elimination of fraudulent voter registration. One should be careful, however, in drawing conclusions about unusual
changes in voter registration from 2007 to 2012 at the district level. There
are several possible reasons for this apart from fraud. It could be due to
migration from one district to another for economic reasons. In this regard
the increased mining activity in some districts could be a prime factor. It
could be due to localized registration drives by one organization (political
party, NEC etc) or another either in 2007 or 2012. It could be due to voter
apathy or heightened political party competition, localized in a district or
region. Certainly though one must conclude that the drop in registration in
all the districts in the East adds weight to the accusation of not just over
voting (for which 477 polling station results were cancelled) but over
registration in that region. The lack of significant growth in the country
total also supports this. When one looks at the numbers as percentages of total registered
voters, one sees that the percentages have dropped in the East and South (East
24.25% to 20.7%, South 20.3% to 19.9%), and increased in the North and
West (North 32.3% to 34.3% , West 23.1% to 25%). In all the changes since |
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exceeded the number of
registered voters there and indeed greatly exceeded the number of votes cast
in the North in the 2007 elections some twenty nine years later. A few years
after this, for the 1985 presidential election, total valid votes cast were
given as 2,784,591. Some of these voters then disappeared and have not yet
reappeared, almost thirty years later! In the 1991 constitutional referendum registered
voters were recorded as 2,500,000. Looking at these numbers and the current
2012 figure, one might be forgiven for thinking that