Immediate
or Delayed Swearing-in - Which is Better for Africa?
Elections
for the US Presidency take place every four years, usually on the first
Tuesday in
November. And yet the new US President is not sworn into office until
January 20, a full two and a half months later. In Britain on the other
hand the transition from one leader to the next is brutally swift.
Within days, even hours, of a change of leadership, TV cameras are set
up in Downing Street to show the outgoing Prime
Minister with bags packed even as
the incoming PM arrives to take his or her place. These are two of the
proudest democracies on earth. Is this difference merely a reflection
of the Presidential versus the Parliamentary system? Not really.
Around the world, democracies manage their leadership
transitions somewhere in between these two extremes.
In the most recent Canadian leadership election on October 19, 2015,
Justin Trudeau defeated incumbent Stephen Harper, who had been nine
years in office. Trudeau was sworn in on November 4, 15 days
later.
The 2013 Australian election took place on September 7. Opposition
leader Tony Abbott defeated incumbent Kevin Rudd. He was sworn in as
Prime Minister by Governor-General Quentin Bryce on September
18, 11 days later.
Emmanuel Macron was declared winner of the Presidential elections in
France on May 7, 2017. He was sworn in 7 days later, on May 14.
In the 2014 Indian General Election, as always a massive exercise,
results were declared on May 16. The BJP won a historic victory over
the Congress Party of India, which had been dominant since Independence
in 1949. The incoming Prime Minister Narendra Modi was sworn into
office on May 20, 4 days later.
What
are the advantages of immediate swearing-in? This method can seem,
superficially,
to be safer. Especially in a tight election, where results might be
disputed, it gives no time for extraneous actors to enter the stage, no
time for an unstable period when no one is sure exactly who is in
charge. The 'lame-duck' period, when an exiting President is about to
lose power, is circumscribed. A power vacuum is avoided. In Sierra
Leone, in the 1967 elections, the outcome was in
dispute for several days, with the competing parties neck and neck, and
a few independent MPs undecided. Eventually, in the confusion, the
military stepped in and
seized power for itself. With immediate swearing-in once the Chief
Electoral Commissioner or his equivalent, announces the final result,
the winner is sworn in. Period. On the same day even. In Sierra Leone
the haste can seem precipitous. Especially when, as required by the
Constitution, the swearing-in is done by the Chief Justice. In
recent Sierra Leone elections, the top judge has been unceremoniously
hauled from rest to perform this duty, even at night! (This is
quite
reminiscent of the first
act of Sierra Leone coup makers, which has been to call upon the
CJ, guns at the ready, to perform this all-important ceremony!)
No doubt all concerned understand or at least hope that once the
ceremony is performed by the Chief Justice, the judiciary would be
severely hampered in the event that it was called upon to adjudicate on
the manner they came to office.
This leads us to one of the main benefits of delayed swearing-in: the
opportunity for appeals by the losing side and judicial review of the
conduct of the Elections Commission. Theoretically, such judicial
review conducted whilst the incumbent leader, who may not be an active
contestant, is still in office provides an opportunity for a genuinely
independent, neutral process and avoids the potentially very messy
business of "un-swearing-in" a new President. Even if the incumbent
leader is an active
contestant in the election he has not been afforded the protection of
an immediate swearing-in before
judicial review. In the 2017 general elections in Kenya, the incumbent
Uhuru Kenyatta was declared the winner by the electoral commission on
August 11. His opponent, Raila Odinga, disputed the results and
announced he would challenge them in the Kenya Supreme Court.
Swearing-in was delayed
and to their great credit, the Kenya Supreme Court, having heard the
available evidence, was courageous enough to nullify the results and
order that a new
election be held. This was duly conducted, although eventually Odinga
declined to participate, and Kenyatta was eventually sworn-in for his
second term on November 28.
Judicial review however raises the question of whether judges are
well
placed to decide on the technicalities of electioneering. Granted that
all human activities are subject to law, there are, however, many
technical activities that require in court the advice of technical
experts. If the Electoral Commission are in fact the best-placed
technical experts to decide on an election outcome (and who else might
be better placed?) might it not be
superfluous to call upon the judiciary to oversee their work? If one
accepts this argument then perhaps immediate swearing-in, a la the
Sierra Leone style, can be justified.
In the American system, with a long delay between announcement and
swearing-in, it is claimed that this period is necessary in order for
one administration to smoothly transition into another, for officials
to prepare proper handing-over notes, brief their incoming counterparts
and the like. It could be argued that in a non-antagonistic setting all
this may be done even after the incoming officials have assumed office.
Delayed swearing-in, though, especially the longer delays, gives the
appearance
of fairness and of supreme confidence in the stability of the political
system.
In Nigeria, notorious for instability, coup and counter-coup little
more than a generation ago, a leisurely swearing-in, unconcerned with
security issues, now seems to
be the norm. The 2015 general elections were held on 28 and 29 March,
2015. Challenger Muhammadu Buhari defeated incumbed President Jonathan
Goodluck. The incoming President was sworn in on May 29, two months
later. In 2019, Buhari was reelected in the elections of February
23. Results were announced a few days later, but the delay till
swearing-in, again on May 29, was a full three months.
Ghana, no stranger to political instability in the 1960s, 70s and 80s,
now seems unworried about its ability to effect peaceful political
transition. In the 2016 Ghanaian General Elections, held on December 7,
results
were announced on December 9, with Nana Akufo-Addo defeating incumbent
John Mahama for the Presidency. Akufo-Addo was sworn into office on
January 7, 2019, 29 days after the announcement of results.
In South Africa, the President is answerable to his party and can be
recalled by the party executive. Since the end of apartheid, with the
powerful African National Congress dominant in South African politics,
the South African presidency has been decided by the ANC as much as by
a national vote. Once the ANC announced its decisions, South African
Presidents Thabo Mbeki (2008) and Jacob Zuma (2018) were replaced and
their successors sworn in within a matter of days.