Sierra Leone's Population Increases by 42%
in 11 Years
Provisional census results
released by Statistics Sierra Leone on March 31 reveal that Sierra
Leone’s
population increased by 42% in the 11-year period from the previous
census, conducted in 2004, to the most recent one, enumerated in
December 2015. Total population increased from 4,976,871 to 7,075,641. If Sierra
Leone’s population continues
to increase at the same rate, it will double in 22 years. Thus, from a
base population of just under 5 million at the previous census in 2004,
the population at the next census, scheduled for 2025 will be around 10
million if the population continues to increase at the same rate. Apparently small
differences in population growth rates can, if maintained over time,
lead to large
differences in population growth The results indicate a
sharp increase in the Sierra Leonean population growth rate in recent
years. At Independence the population was estimated at
just over 2 million. If the population had been increasing at
the current rate in the decades since Independence, then it would have
doubled to 4 million 22 years after Independence in 1983. Twenty-two
years after this, in 2005, it would again have doubled, to 8 million.
Finally, in the 11 years since 2005, still assuming the current rate of
increase, it would have increased by 42%, to 11.36 million. The fact
that the population is, by all estimates, well below this figure,
indicates that growth has not been taking place at this high rate in
most of the period since Independence.
What might have caused this sudden spurt in population growth is
unclear. UN and government figures
for life expectancy and infant and
child mortality have not previously revealed any dramatic improvement
in these indicators in recent years. Government figures for total
births and deaths nationally are unreliable, as many of these go
unreported. One might even have expected that the recent Ebola outbreak
might depress population growth, although the number of recorded
fatalities (ca. 3000) is small when compared to the absolute population
increase of over 2 million in the 11-year period.
Very high positive (greater than 4%)
or negative growth rates can often be
associated with
traumatic events within a country's borders, leading to massive
migration. If for instance widespread famine occurs within a nation, a
large segment of the population might move to neighbouring countries,
leading to a negative growth rate for that time period. As conditions
within the country improve over time, a large number of those refugees
might return, leading to a high positive growth rate for that time
period.Thus for instance, UNDP figures record Liberia with a -0.9%
population growth rate in the period leading up to 1990 when its civil
war was intense and with a growth rate of 6.6% in the period leading up
to 2000, when its civil war had ended.
Meanwhile some observers have cast doubt not only on the figures for
the total Sierra Leone population but also on the figures given for the
different regions of the country. Supporters of the two main political
parties, the Northern-based APC and the South-East-based SLPP,
traditionally regard census results warily, as they potentially could
influence victory or defeat at national elections. In the Western Area
including the capital Freetown, apparently inundated with new arrivals
from the provinces, long-time residents are surprised that the relative
share of the region’s total has changed little since 2004. Then, the
Western Area’s percent of the total was 19.3%; now it has been measured
at 21.3%.