It could, if we don’t make the right decisions. It hasn’t happened in
modern times, but in the Middle Ages, plagues regularly decimated whole
nations. From one victim in a small corner of Kailahun, Ebola has
invaded nearly every corner of Sierra Leone, taking hundreds if not
thousands of victims in the process. There is no evidence that we are
even close to halting Ebola’s advance. The rate of increase of
confirmed cases is near-exponential. When the President announced the
State of Emergency on July 30 this year, less than 540 cases had been
confirmed. Today, five weeks later, we have 1,276 cases (Ministry of
Health Sept 7 Situation Report), almost a 150% increase. Clearly, even
if one argues the Emergency measures announced by the President
prevented the situation getting even worse than it is today, they have
not halted Ebola’s spread. Those first 540 cases occurred over a period
of nine weeks from May 28 when the first cases in Sierra Leone were
reported. In the six weeks since the President’s speech we have had an
additional 746 cases. Far from Ebola retreating at the State of
Emergency, it continued its attack with increased vigor. If we make no
major adjustments at this point and if one assumes, optimistically, the
same rate of increase as in the past weeks, rather than an exponential
increase, by mid October we should have 2,000 cumulative cases.
Assuming, again optimistically, a 50% Case Fatality Rate, these cases
would have resulted in 1,000 deaths. And these are just laboratory
confirmed cases, not including the many non-laboratory confirmed Ebola
deaths that we know are taking place. After October, with the disease
entrenched in every neighbourhood, who can tell how long it would take
for Ebola to kill a majority of Sierra Leoneans?
We HAVE to change. We HAVE to try extreme measures to avert what is
already a disaster and could soon be an apocalyptic catastrophe.
Listening to the comments of the general public, one does not get the
impression that there is a full realization of how difficult our
situation is. The international community realizes this better than we
do. The language from normally diplomatic international experts, the
WHO, CDC, MSF etc, could not be more blunt. We are facing doom. And
they don’t have the answers. If they did they would have provided them
by now. There's a good reason that America and other technologically
advanced nations have studied biological warfare for decades. They have
long understood that certain biological agents, bacteria and viruses
such as Ebola, could wipe out entire peoples far more effectively than
bombs. Sierra Leoneans, perhaps more than most Africans, tend to rely
on outsiders for help in a crisis. The West. Our Colonial mastters.
America. In this case, Obama, the CDC and WHO are as scared and
helpless as all the rest of us. The UN Coordinator on |Ebola, David
Nabarro, has been giving a time frame of six to nine months for "MAYBE"
containing Ebola. Realistically, at the present rate of spread, in that
time tens of thousands will have died.
No one currently has the answer to West African Ebola. All we can do is
intelligently try different things and carefully and quickly evaluate
their effectiveness. Fortunately we have one clear yardstick for
evaluation: the number of confirmed cases. If the numbers of new cases
are going down we are succeeding (assuming cases are being recorded
consistently). If they are going up, Ebola is winning.
My suggestions for the Ebola fight are these:
(1) The proposed
three-day stay at home has generated much controversy, with some
opposing it. I think it is too little too late. An extreme situation,
such as we have now, calls for an extreme response. If the incubation
period is 21 days, then the stay at home period should be at least 21
days. This should help greatly in reducing the transmission of
Ebola. The stay at home could be mitigated somewhat by emergency
distribution of food, or by a daily lifting of a curfew for a few hours
to enable citizens to obtain food and other necessaries. This would
have to be carefully managed to avoid panic and riot.
If for political reasons only a 3-day lock down is authorized,
restrictions on changing one’s residence during the period of this
emergency could be introduced, such that special permission would be
required to set up residency in a new area.. Chiefdom law used to
require strangers to report to the chief immediately upon arrival.
Perhaps this is the time to reintroduce this law if it has lapsed and
to extend it throughout Sierra Leone, including Freetown and other
cities. Neighbourhoods should be on alert to report all new arrivals.
Ebola spreads to new areas when Ebola patients travel from their place
of residence, so this restriction should help to curb the spread of the
disease.
(2) We need isolation
centers more than we need treatment
centers. The two purposes are often intertwined, but they are actually
quite distinct. Treatment can’t stop this epidemic, because, as of now,
there is no effective treatment. Isolation, on the other hand, could
stop this epidemic. If it were possible to effectively isolate all
current Ebola patients the outbreak would be over in 21 days. Finished.
Period. So what we can not currently do with treatment, we might be
able to do with isolation.
The whole issue of the treatment of Ebola is problematic. Whichever way
you look at it, whoever’s numbers you believe, the success rate of
Ebola treatment is poor. And treatment of Ebola patients by medical
workers carries with it the very serious risk of these medical workers
themselves becoming infected and then going on to infect others in
their institutions and their families and in any private practice they
may have. We have seen this time and again. It has happened everywhere
Ebola has appeared. It has happened to medical workers from Sierra
Leone, Liberia, Guinea, America and Britain among others in this
crisis. One of the prime methods by which Ebola spreads is the medical
worker, because the medical worker comes into close contact with so
many patients, Ebola and non-Ebola, during the course of the working
day. Given that the success of treatment is very poor to begin with and
it carries with it the spread of further infections through the medical
worker, we should ask ourselves whether it makes sense to
continue using health care workers to treat Ebola. We have a limited
number of health care workers who we need for other illnesses that can
be addressed successfully. We already have lost a significant
percentage of our health care workers in a thus-far losing cause. In
Liberia the health care system has virtually collapsed. In Uganda, in a
much smaller outbreak, there was a near-revolt at the main Ebola
hospital. The WHO and MSF’s solution is to throw more medical resources
at the problem. More treatment centers, more doctors, more nurses. This
is understandable. These are medical organizations and they are looking
for a medical response. But even if you could recruit the required
medical workers (probably thousands not hundreds) from abroad, which is
doubtful, Ebola would love this response. BECAUSE EBOLA
KNOWS IT CAN SURVIVE AND SPREAD THROUGH THE HEALTH WORKER.
From East Africa to West Africa, health workers have been infected
through their PPEs and no one has been able to conclusively explain how
it has been happening. In tropical African conditions these protective
suits are reportedly virtually impossible to wear and work with for any
length of time. Isolation centers, as opposed to treatment centers,
would reduce or eliminate the need for PPE-clad health care workers to
be in direct contact with symptomatic Ebola patients.
(3) So who would tend to the Ebola patients in the
isolation centers? Who would perform the routine duties of cleaning up
and assisting with feeding? Why would Ebola sufferers ever consent to
admit themselves into a facility without doctors and nurses? For a
start these facilities would still be provided with all the range of
medicines that are currently being used to treat the symptoms of Ebola.
And the administration of these medicines would be under the overall
direction of qualified health care workers, albeit ones not in face to
face contact with the patients (in a similar manner to which a general
in war never sees the troops he’s fighting). Hands-on care of patients
would be effected by two classes of people: relatives of patients and
Ebola survivors. And what incentive would these classes have to perform
these duties? MONEY. PAY THE
PATIENTS AND PAY THE RELATIVES AND PAY THE SURVIVORS. ATTACK EBOLA MORE
DIRECTLY WITH MONEY. USE MONEY TO CHANGE THE BEHAVIOUR OF THOSE WHOM
EBOLA HAS DIRECTLY AFFECTED. We should pay the relatives and the
survivors even more handsomely than we are now paying the doctors and
nurses to look after Ebola patients. Not only that, we should pay for
the Ebola patients themselves to come into the isolation centers. And
we should pay them daily to stay in the centers. Even if, in the
process we end up paying millions for some ordinary headaches. The
overall goal is to isolate all potential Ebola patients from the rest
of the populace. If we were to announce, say, that every Ebola patient
who enters an Ebola facility accompanied by a relative would receive an
immediate cash payment of one million leones, surely, surely we would
quickly discover many new Ebola patients. Some genuine, some not so
genuine, but these could be quickly weeded out by temperature test,
clinical examination and a blood test. Survivors and relatives of
genuine patients would be required to stay in separate facilities on
the Ebola premises and to provide day to day care for their patients.
They would have full access to PPEs. And they should be paid on a daily
basis exactly as though they were doctors or nurses. Patient care by
relatives carries added advantages: it eliminates the anguish and guilt
that surely prevents many from bringing in their relatives for
treatment (imagine a mother giving up her only child to a distant Ebola
center); and it eliminates the fear among some sections of the populace
that the Ebola facilities might themselves be poisoning patients.
However these relatives would themselves need to be monitored after
their duties at the center have ended, to ensure they themselves have
not become infected. Patient care by relatives transfers the risk of
infections arising within the hospital from the health care worker to
the patient’s relative, but with a significant reduction of that risk:
the relative is responsible for one patient, not
many as with the health care worker. Ebola survivors, who are supposed
to have immunity, could be used to care for those patients who present
without relatives. They too should be paid equally handsomely on a
daily basis. The Ebola
isolation centers should provide care
givers and patients with all the necessities of life, including three
nourishing meals daily.
Conclusions:
Patient care by relatives is not a new idea. It was tried in Uganda, in
a much less desperate situation (
www.nytimes.com/2001/02/18/magazine/dr-matthew-s-passion.html ). The
costs of paying patients, relatives and survivors would not be
prohibitive compared to the sums of money that are currently being
discussed. If you imagine, for argument’s sake, five thousand patients
each receiving with their relatives a total of one million leones, the
cost would be five billion leones, a little more than one million USD.
This is far less than the budgets that are currently being discussed.
Related...